Internet radio is such a great thing.
Having listened to much of the radio coverage online through Frances, I turned an ear toward Ivan.
Voice of Barbados has a very high quality live audio stream at http://www.vob929.com/
They've been doing regular updates on Ivan (mainly reading the advisories) and are getting emergency preparedness info from the local governmental agencies.
It looks like this might become some very interesting listening over the next few days, esp. if Ivan makes the bee-line that is forecast right now. In the meantime, they're also playing some pretty cool Caribbean music, with a decidedly western influence.
MP
I find it interesting that Fabio, the deepest hurricane in the eastern Pacific, had 892mb central pressure, yet only 120kt sustained winds... Something doesn't sound right... Additionally, I did a search of Fabio on Google, and got linked to the 1988 hurricane season page from Unisys, which shows that, atleast on the advisories, it only got down to 943mb --> http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_paci...FABIO/track.dat (http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1988/FABIO/track.dat) ...
Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
Yes, I too was surprised that I could not find any such list. So I crunched these out of the NHC HURDAT files last night. Ivan is not on here but it would be 912 mb, at least so far.
Tim
[[/code]
Interesting list. Saw some familiar names but some were stronger than I had realized. However, there is one omission from the Atlantic storms -- Andrew in 1992, which I think checked in at 922 mb at landfall and may have been lower earlier. Peak wind was at least 140 mph.
Gulf Shores is taking a beating now... I've posted more on reports from Gulf Shores in the NOW thread, so refer to that if you wish...
I do want to say that I've been pretty impressed with CNN's coverage and the meteorologist "at" CNN. I forget her name, but he has done, IMO, an excellent job so far. She seems very knowledgeable (unlike many of the mets for the 'national' networks) and has done very well mixing science/meteorology and easy-to-understand concepts. I'm usually not a fan of network meteorologists (by network, I mean Al Roker's of the industry), but she's impressed me.
I just have to say something....
For about 6 years now, my parents have spent all of every February in a ground floor condo on the beach in Gulf Shores AL, about 100 feet from the water, elevation approx. 10 feet. My Mom's sister stays there also, on the 4th floor (of about 14).
Ground zero.
They are glad, tonight, that they don't own it.....just rent.
Bob
With hurricane Ivan now reaching the ultimate status of category 5, a question comes to my mind. What is the maximum sustained winds recorded or estimated in a cat 5 hurricane? Could a storm strengthen to (hypothetically) beyond a cat 5, if such a classification was included on the Saffir-Simpson scale?
Jamaicans...Only concrete is going to save you tonight, not God.
The mis-information and lack of preparedness is really starting to show in Jamaica. I can't count how many Jamaicans I've heard on tv saying 'everything is going to be okay because God will save us!'
God might get you through the aftermath, but not tonight. Even the radio hosts are encouraging this.
Saul, think F3 tornado damage...combined with several inches of rain.
Angie
Does anybody know what the track of that CAT 5 to hit the Keys was (back in the 30's)? Did it cross over Cuba or did it find its way through the Florida Straits without hitting land before Florida?
The most intense hurricanes occur in the Pacific, as Typhoons. The most intense hurricane in the Atlantic was Gilbert (1988 I believe). That's debateable though as to how you want to classify a hurricane. Lowest pressure, highest wind, highest gust, most damage, most fatalities, etc.
I just got word from a friend who evacuated the New Orleans area. He is in Dallas now, first place he could find a motel.
Cool pic of Ivan:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/i...91104-1945z.jpg (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/ivan091104-1945z.jpg)
Caymam Radio Stations
http://www.radiocayman.gov.ky
Cuba Radio
http://www.radiohc.cu/ingles/portada.htm
Cayman video from Port Authority (not positive live)
http://www.caymanport.com/webcams.htm
others
http://www.myusedbook.com/hcam/?pg=capbruce1 live so far
Ivan damage pics : Grenada and a few Jamiaca
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/weather/conte...rm/photos/ivan/ (http://www.palmbeachpost.com/weather/content/shared/weather/storm/photos/ivan/)
Thanks, I also found it on wunderground. To answer my question it navigated its way around The Bahamas and through the straits.
Also of honorable mention — while hurricane Gilbert's eye passed south of Puerto Rico on 9/13/1988, its southern edge passed over Venezuela and resulted in 50 fatalities.
Top Ten Equatorward Hurricanes (1922-2004)
This shows the most equatorward location where a storm contained hurricane strength winds, according to estimates or measurements. Of course this is kind of like splitting hairs, but hopefully it's somewhat educational. I also just whipped this up in ten minutes and by eyeballing NHC charts, so please don't hold it as authoritative.
10. 12.9N Hurricane Hugo (13 Sep 1989) - Was still very far east when it reached 12.9N, recurved toward SC
9. 12.8N Hurricane Hazel (5 Oct 1954) - Hit Grenada
8. 12.4N Hurricane Janet (22 Sep 1955) - Hit Grenada again
7. 11.7N Hurricane Cesar (27 July 1996) - Rare track near the Panama coast, landfall in Costa Rica
6. 11.2N Hurricane Joan (20 Oct 1988) - TS landfall in Venezuela, then strengthened off Panama coast!
5. 10.8N Hurricane Gertrude (30 Sep 1974) - Did a loop-de-loop east of Trinidad, became TS near Grenada
4. 10.4N Hurricane Joyce (29 Sep 2000) - Died to TS before recurving north and restrengthening
3. 10.3N Hurricane Flora (30 Sep 1963) - Formed at 8N, brushed Trinidad and Grenada
2. 9.7N Hurricane Ivan (5 Sep 2004) - Hit Grenada
1. 9.3N Hurricane #2 (27 June 1933) - Grazed Venezuela
Looks like we have a definitive recordholder here, at least for the modern era.
Honorable mention
14 Aug 1990 - Tropical Storm Fran hit the Venezuelan coast; had gotten as far south as 8N when it was a tropical disturbance
7 Aug 1993 - Tropical Storm Bret takes a similar track, getting down to 10N then hitting Trinidad & Tobago and Venezuela
BTW, one should look at Hurricane Ginger for a really deviant track. Not that it has anything to do with southerly storms, but it was just neat.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1971.gif
Tim
Does anyone have a good page on-file of the lowest recorded pressures in hurricanes (not at the time of landfall). The only one I can seem to find ranks hurricanes by lowest pressure at time of landfall. I want lowest pressure overall. Thanks.
(just want to see where Ivan ranks, now that it's at 910mb :shock: )
You know I was just thinking...Wouldn't a hurricane with 165mph sustained winds, gusting to nearly 200mph cause more like F4 damage, simply due to it's more lengthy duration? This is not even considering the possible damage caused from excessive rains/storm surge flooding. I would think that winds of that strength blowing for an hour or so would cause more damage than an F3 passing over in a matter of seconds. Just a thought..
Anyone heard anything more about Grand Cayman? It seems like major media dropped it like a rock with Ivan's impending landfall in the US. I went to the forum link posted above but all I hear is a few roofs blown off, streets flooded etc.
Surely there has to be more substantial damage than this given that the center of the 6th strongest atlantic hurricane ever recorded passed within 30 miles of the small island. Anyone run across any damage pictures?
Did Grand Cayman disappear???? :wink:
EDIT: I did find this story of a "flyover" but still no pictures.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/stor...4493921,00.html (http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4493921,00.html)
Also, an interesting paragraph in that story:
"Many died on Cayman Brac, what is known as a ``sister island.'' They took shelter in caves on higher ground but then left their refuge in the calm when the eye passed over - only to be struck by the fierce winds from other side of the eyewall."
First of all the eye did not even come close to passing over Brac. Brac is 90 miles NE of Grand Cayman. Wonder who put this story together?
If you see her again, post her name -- she deserves some props. :)
Tim
Yes, I too was surprised that I could not find any such list. So I crunched these out of the NHC HURDAT files last night. Ivan is not on here but it would be 912 mb, at least so far.
Tim
Year Name Mb Date Wind Date
ATLANTIC BASIN
1988 GILBERT 888 09/14 160 09/14
1935 NOT NAMED 892 09/03 140 09/03
1980 ALLEN 899 08/07 165 08/07
1969 CAMILLE 905 08/17 165 08/17
1998 MITCH 905 10/26 155 10/26
1955 JANET 914 09/27 150 09/28
2003 ISABEL 915 09/11 145 09/11
1989 HUGO 918 09/15 140 09/15
1995 OPAL 919 10/04 130 10/04
1961 HATTIE 920 10/31 140 10/30
1985 GLORIA 920 09/25 125 09/25
1999 FLOYD 921 09/13 135 09/13
1992 ANDREW 922 08/23 150 08/23
1967 BEULAH 923 09/19 140 09/20
1853 NOT NAMED 924 09/03 130 09/03
1910 NOT NAMED 924 10/17 130 10/16
1979 DAVID 924 08/30 150 08/30
1886 NOT NAMED 925 08/20 135 08/20
1977 ANITA 926 09/02 150 09/02
1961 ESTHER 927 09/17 125 09/18
1989 GABRIELLE 927 09/04 125 09/05
1880 NOT NAMED 928 10/02 120 10/01
1974 CARMEN 928 09/02 130 09/02
1928 NOT NAMED 929 09/17 140 09/13
1953 CAROL 929 09/03 130 09/03
1966 INEZ 929 09/29 130 09/28
1995 FELIX 929 08/12 120 08/12
EAST PACIFIC BASIN
1997 LINDA 902 09/12 160 09/12
2002 KENNA 913 10/25 145 10/25
1973 AVA 915 6 6 140 6 7
1997 GUILLERMO 919 08/05 140 08/04
1994 GILMA 920 07/24 140 07/24
2002 ELIDA 921 07/25 140 07/25
2002 HERNAN 921 09/01 140 09/01
1994 OLIVIA 923 09/25 130 09/25
2001 JULIETTE 923 09/25 125 09/25
1990 TRUDY 924 10/20 135 10/20
1976 ANNETTE 925 6 9 120 6 10
(Edited to fix an import problem and to remove Pacific's Fabio, which was an error in the HURDAT database.)
If Ivan comes close to Bama here is a good streaming video page (user controlled) if it stays up.
http://www.bamabeachcams.com/LiveCams/Isla...andHouseCam.htm (http://www.bamabeachcams.com/LiveCams/IslandHouseCam.htm)
Jamaican Live Radio , Servers are busy just keep trying to get connected. Talks with Officials and residents
http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/
I don't understand something: How come New Orleans is under a hurricane warning and yet NWS is forecasting 30 to 55 mph winds?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecasts/LAZ062.php?zo=1
(edit: updated up to 70 mph, but still, not hurricane force. And before it was 55 mph, but under hurricane warning)
My handicapped great aunt who just lost her husband about a month ago lives in a house on the beach in Gulf Shores. I'm afraid that she is going to lose everything that she owned. Please pray for her!
I'm wondering if "Ivan" was named after Ivan Ray Tannehill. Also trying to decide if he would be flattered or is turning in his grave.
Chuck
Good site with Ivan's impact on Grenada. In short.... laid waste.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jpg00467.jpg
Yikes.
Aaron
I have used the Miami Herald's site a lot for info the last few weeks. They always seem to have links to almost every other story you can find anywhere.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/
Important!
Many died on Cayman Brac, what is known as a ``sister island.'' They took shelter in caves on higher ground but then left their refuge in the calm when the eye passed over - only to be struck by the fierce winds from other side of the eyewall.
I can't now find where I had read it this morning, but I'm quite sure I read that, but in reference to a hurricane many years ago! (1935??)
Seems like reports are somewhat conflicting about the amount of damage.
In some places, there are quotes that the damage is "Devastation beyond imagination", while other reports are more along the lines of "25-50% of structures damaged or destroyed." I don't know that 25% of structures damaged/destroyed quite equates with "...beyond imagination".
Bob
[edit] OK, cool, I found it:
The Caymans - a group of three islands that draw hundreds of thousands of tourists and cruise ship passengers a year - have not experienced a storm of this ferocity since 1932.
In that year, an era before hurricanes were given names, one storm made a direct hit, taking hundreds of lives.
Many died on Cayman Brac, what is known as a "sister island." They took shelter in caves on higher ground but then left their refuge in the calm when the eye passed over - only to be struck by the fierce winds from other side of the eyewall.
That came from this AP article:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SUR...EMPLATE=DEFAULT (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SURVIVING_THE_HURRICANE?SITE=CODER&SECTION=US&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)
I've seen local office forecast hurricane conditions even recently (during the landfall of Charlie the local office made a forecast for the Punta Gordo (sp?) area of winds of 120 mph) - they forecast whatever they want - and are not bound by what NHC forecasts. Therefore, just because NHC has their area under a hurricane warning, if they don't expect hurricane conditions, they don't have to have it in the forecast. Think of it like a severe thunderstorm warning. Often, the warning is for a larger area (a county) than the area of the county which will actually experience severe conditions. It's not quite the same thing with hurricane warnings, but they issue for a larger area than is expected to be impacted - in case the storm takes an unexpected turn, or doesn't take an expected turn in this case.
Glen
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
Mike
Interesting secondhand reports on this forum from people talking to family and friends via cellphone on Grand Cayman Islands
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/cayman.shtml
the sound of the weather is very distressing. coconuts are flying off near by trees and hitting against her two story house. Plywood boards are literally peeling off the windows and flying away in the wind. I heard a crashing noise and it was coconuts lodging into her French door upstairs.
Is it just or does there seem to be an abnormally high proportion of nighttime landfalls for all hurricanes here in the U.S.? Charlie seemed to be the exception. All of the other notable ones I can recall came ashore at night. Looks like Ivan is going to do the same thing.
Tim
Good catch, Chuck... it wasn't in the list. I'll have to go back and see why it's missing.
Tim
TWC just did an interesting graphic about CAT 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic. It showed that most CAT 5's remain at that intensity for less than a day. And only 1 since 1949 was a CAT 5 for 2-3 days.
Just what kind of damage can winds from 165 to 200 mph do?
:shock:
I found the error with Fabio and fixed the list (see above). Apparently NHC's HURDAT file contains this error, which caused the 892 mb listing. Looks like 982 got mistyped as 892.
21690 07/31*1201296 60 0986*1211306 60 0984*1221314 65 0892*1241323 65 0981*
Linda gets put back into #1 for the East Pacific. WeatherMatrix has a good article on it here: http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/1997/linda/
I also fixed the Atlantic list... hopefully there should be no problems there.
If y'all find a West Pacific file let me know and I can do one on it too. I'll also find someplace more permanent to post the results.
Tim
In case anyone is interested, my Great Aunt's son came and got her so she would be out of danger. Her house along the beach was also unscathed.
That's just as well. Gulf Shores must have been in the drier western part of the storm; anyone along the beach in the NE quad, like at Pensacola, had it far worse — there's a photo here http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5960400/, picture 2 in the slide show, that really shows just how bad.
Ivan is 4-5 days from a Florida landfall. At this point in Frances' track it was almost wall to wall coverage on TWC. I think there is a little complacency that they can't be hit with two hurricanes in a week, not to mention they are a pretty worn out.
Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
Top Ten Equatorward Hurricanes (1922-2004)
Very interesting Tim, thank you!
We're following your hurricane reports from Israel, because during this time of year the weather over here is extreme in it's boredom :)
Top 6 are listed in current Ivan disc. With Ivan being #6 (for now)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?
Originally posted by B Ozanne
Does anybody know what the track of that CAT 5 to hit the Keys was (back in the 30's)? Did it cross over Cuba or did it find its way through the Florida Straits without hitting land before Florida?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...935/2/track.gif (http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/2/track.gif)
Mentions Andrew with a pressure of 922 mb.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html
http://www.noaa.gov/hurricaneandrew.html
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/sate...w92/andrew.html (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/hurricanes/andrew92/andrew.html)
Mike
These aren't first hand storm reports and I am not looking to start a new thread.
I got a better view of that causeway that failed around Pensacola. Looks like it held together very well. They big problem was the spans weren't well connected to the pilings and the water "bumped" them off. Or they were well connected and those were some big waves. I talked to a friend in Fort Walton Beach. Engineers were worried about the integrity of the bridge over to the barrier island there, could be damaged, but they are driving on it. He also reported all the other cliched images, boats and barges on houses, apartment buildings collapsed, and knee deep water everywhere.
You'll rarely see the local NWS office post hurricane conditions on their sites.
they forecast whatever they want - and are not bound by what NHC forecasts
Thank you for the answers!
I don't understand something: How come New Orleans is under a hurricane warning and yet NWS is forecasting 30 to 55 mph winds?
You'll rarely see the local NWS office post hurricane conditions on their sites. They'll put up the icon for winds and use wording like 'hurricane conditions possible.' I'm not sure of the reasoning but I always check, and I've never seen a forecast on one of the pages indicating sustained winds 140 mph gusting to 165...
For our more casual readers who are just now getting familiar with the more technical side of hurricanes, here is a most excellent hurricane FAQ -- somewhat of a cornerstone, too:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html
Tim Vasquez
 Suggestion for cool sorting options
 Unwanted bonus
|
Hurricane Ivan, Frances's southern relative